Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
