A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
